Dayton 55-61 Illinois State

Finished

For this NIT match, BetFTW's top pick is Dayton to win with -8.5 handicap, with a 71% model probability. We also predict under 140.0 points at 64%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Dayton to win with -8.5 handicap L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    71%
    Stake Med 45.3/100
    Odds 2.13 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -45.78
    Best odds 2.15 Pinnacle
  2. Pick 2 Total score under 140.0 W Settled - pick won.
    Event probability
    64%
    Stake Med 26.9/100
    Odds 1.97 Pinnacle Recorded P/L +26.08
    Best odds 1.97 Pinnacle
  3. Pick 3 Dayton to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    82%
    Stake Low 24.7/100
    Odds 1.31 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -24.68
    Best odds 1.31 Pinnacle
Odds updated
Match analysis

Dayton vs Illinois State prediction review

NIT action on Wednesday, 25 March 2026 included Dayton against Illinois State, a match that finished 55-61.

The leading model-based prediction for Dayton vs Illinois State is Dayton to win with -8.5 handicap, with a calculated probability of 71%. The selection is shown at latest recorded odds of 2.13 and carries a Medium stake band. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

Another available betting angle for the event comes from the total-points market. For this market, under 140 points carries a 64% model probability and latest recorded odds of 1.97. Of the two available picks, Dayton to win with -8.5 handicap carries the higher model probability at 71% compared with 64%. The selection was settled as a winning pick.

The primary selection reached best recorded odds of 2.15, compared with a latest recorded price of 2.13. BetFTW retains the published probability, recorded odds, stake and settlement so the original prediction can be reviewed after the event.