BetFTW collects event probabilities from sport-specific prediction data sources and combines them with bookmaker prices. The stored prediction record includes the selected outcome, probability, latest available price, best recorded pre-match price and a Kelly-derived stake value.
Each sport has its own data pipeline. BetFTW compares the estimated event probability with the probability implied by the available bookmaker odds (1 ÷ decimal odds). It sizes the difference with the Kelly criterion, f = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p the estimated probability and q = 1 − p. A prediction is published when the Kelly fraction, expressed as a stake score out of 100, is above 5. Prices above 15.00 are never published.
The published probability describes the estimated chance of the selected outcome. The stake band describes the calculated edge at the recorded price. Neither is a guarantee.
Stake is scored on a 1–100 scale so the selection process can distinguish a marginal edge from a stronger one. The number itself is informational - what matters on the page is the band:
For upcoming events, prediction cards show the latest best available price stored by BetFTW. Settled records retain the best bookmaker price captured during the pre-match collection window.
Performance is reported as Kelly-weighted yield at recorded best odds. Profit and yield use each prediction’s stored Kelly-derived stake and settled outcome; average odds use the same recorded best-price field.
A published pick stays published, even if the odds later move and its stake falls below the threshold. When the event finishes, BetFTW settles each pick as won, lost or void from the final score, at the best recorded odds and the recorded stake. Ice hockey picks settle on the score after regulation time. Events without a recorded result, such as postponed or cancelled ones, are marked on their page and left out of the performance figures.
The performance pages show the record by sport, market, stake band and competition, with a report for every completed month. How BetFTW measures performance defines each figure.
Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Results can swing substantially over short reporting periods, and prices may change after BetFTW last checks them. Predictions cover pre-match markets only and should be independently verified before use.
Predictions are educational and informational - not financial or betting advice. Bet responsibly. 18+.
Europe/London defines the date to which each prediction belongs. Event times default to the visitor’s automatically detected timezone and can be changed from Display settings without changing the page URL or prediction date.