Novak Djokovic 0-3 Carlos Alcaraz

Finished

For this ATP US Open match, BetFTW's top pick is Novak Djokovic to win, with a 70% model probability. We also predict under 3.5 sets at 52%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Novak Djokovic to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    70%
    Stake High 60.3/100
    Odds 4.10 Bovada Recorded P/L -60.51
    Best odds 4.16 Pinnacle
  2. Pick 2 Total score under 3.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Event probability
    52%
    Stake Low 20.0/100
    Odds 2.50 Pinnacle Recorded P/L +30.00
    Best odds 2.50 Pinnacle
Odds updated
Match analysis

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction review

The final score was 0-3 when Novak Djokovic faced Carlos Alcaraz in ATP US Open on Friday, 5 September 2025.

BetFTW's model rates Novak Djokovic to win as the leading prediction for the event, with an estimated probability of 70%. The prediction's latest recorded price is 4.10, while its calculated edge places it in BetFTW's High stake band. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

A second available pick comes from the total-sets market. For this market, under 3.5 sets carries a 52% model probability and latest recorded odds of 2.50. The predictions cover different markets, with the model assigning the higher probability to Novak Djokovic to win. The selection was settled as a winning pick.

The best price recorded for the primary pick is 4.16, above its latest recorded odds of 4.10. Published prediction data remains visible after settlement, including the model probability, recorded prices, stake and outcome.