Sebastian Baez 1-3 Luciano Darderi

Finished

For this ATP Australian Open match, BetFTW's top pick is Luciano Darderi to win, with a 54% model probability. We also predict under 3.5 sets at 45%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Luciano Darderi to win W Settled - pick won.
    Event probability
    54%
    Stake Low 24.3/100
    Odds 2.55 Vave Recorded P/L +37.70
    Best odds 2.55 Vave
  2. Pick 2 Total score under 3.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    45%
    Stake Low 11.1/100
    Odds 2.62 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -11.05
    Best odds 2.62 Pinnacle
Odds updated
Match analysis

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi prediction review

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi took place in ATP Australian Open on Thursday, 22 January 2026 and ended with a 1-3 final score.

The leading model-based prediction for Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi is Luciano Darderi to win, with a calculated probability of 54%. Latest recorded odds for the pick are 2.55, with BetFTW assigning it a Low stake rating. The selection was settled as a winning pick.

The model provides an additional view of the event through the total-sets market. For this market, under 3.5 sets carries a 45% model probability and latest recorded odds of 2.62. While Luciano Darderi to win is the higher-probability selection, under 3.5 sets provides an additional prediction for a different market. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

No difference is shown between the best and latest recorded odds, which both stand at 2.55. BetFTW retains the published probability, recorded odds, stake and settlement so the original prediction can be reviewed after the event.