Carlos Alcaraz 0-2 Daniil Medvedev

Finished

For this ATP Indian Wells match, BetFTW's top pick is Daniil Medvedev to win, with a 58% model probability. We also predict over 2.5 sets at 48%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Daniil Medvedev to win W Settled - pick won.
    Event probability
    58%
    Stake Med 48.7/100
    Odds 5.50 Fezbet Recorded P/L +228.88
    Best odds 5.67 Pinnacle
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    48%
    Stake Low 24.3/100
    Odds 3.19 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -25.78
    Best odds 3.34 Pinnacle
Odds updated
Match analysis

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev prediction review

The ATP Indian Wells meeting between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev finished 0-2 on Saturday, 14 March 2026.

BetFTW's model rates Daniil Medvedev to win as the leading prediction for the event, with an estimated probability of 58%. The prediction's latest recorded price is 5.50, while its calculated edge places it in BetFTW's Medium stake band. The selection was settled as a winning pick.

The model provides an additional view of the event through the total-sets market. over 2.5 sets is rated at 48%, with latest recorded odds of 3.19. Of the two available picks, Daniil Medvedev to win carries the higher model probability at 58% compared with 48%. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

BetFTW shows best recorded odds of 5.67 for the primary prediction, while its latest recorded odds are 5.50. The page preserves the model probability, best and latest recorded odds, stake band and result to provide a transparent historical record.