Carlos Alcaraz 2-1 Alex Michelsen

Finished

For this ATP Tokyo match, BetFTW's top pick is Alex Michelsen to win, with a 25% model probability. We also predict over 2.5 sets at 38%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Alex Michelsen to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    25%
    Stake Low 8.3/100
    Odds 5.50 bet365 Recorded P/L -8.33
    Best odds 5.50 bet365
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Event probability
    38%
    Stake Low 7.0/100
    Odds 3.00 LeoVegas Sport Recorded P/L +14.00
    Best odds 3.00 LeoVegas Sport
Odds updated
Match analysis

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen prediction review

Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen met in ATP Tokyo on Thursday, 1 October 2026, with the event ending 2-1.

BetFTW's model rates Alex Michelsen to win as the leading prediction for the event, with an estimated probability of 25%. The selection has latest recorded odds of 5.50 and falls into the Low stake band. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

The model provides an additional view of the event through the total-sets market. BetFTW rates over 2.5 sets at 38%, compared with latest recorded odds of 3.00. Of the two available picks, over 2.5 sets carries the higher model probability at 38% compared with 25%. The selection was settled as a winning pick.

No difference is shown between the best and latest recorded odds, which both stand at 5.50. The page preserves the model probability, best and latest recorded odds, stake band and result to provide a transparent historical record.