Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Matteo Arnaldi

Finished

For this ATP Tokyo match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 38% model probability. We also predict Matteo Arnaldi to win at 25%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    38%
    Stake Low 20.8/100
    Odds 4.60 LeoVegas Sport Recorded P/L -21.68
    Best odds 4.80 DraftKings
  2. Pick 2 Matteo Arnaldi to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Event probability
    25%
    Stake Low 18.4/100
    Odds 12.40 1xBet Recorded P/L -18.42
    Best odds 12.40 1xBet
Odds updated
Match analysis

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction review

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi took place in ATP Tokyo on Saturday, 3 October 2026 and ended with a 2-0 final score.

The model's strongest available selection is over 2.5 sets, rated at 38%. The selection is shown at latest recorded odds of 4.60 and carries a Low stake band. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

The match-winner market provides another BetFTW prediction for this event. The model selects Matteo Arnaldi to win, assigning the outcome a 25% probability at latest recorded odds of 12.40. over 2.5 sets is rated more highly by the model, at 38% compared with 25% for Matteo Arnaldi to win. The selection was settled as a losing pick.

BetFTW shows best recorded odds of 4.80 for the primary prediction, while its latest recorded odds are 4.60. Published prediction data remains visible after settlement, including the model probability, recorded prices, stake and outcome.