Toledo 85-70 Valparaiso

Finished

For this NCAA match, BetFTW's top pick is Toledo to win with -14.5 handicap, with a 59% estimated probability. We also predict Valparaiso to win at 18%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Toledo to win with -14.5 handicap W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    59%
    Stake Med 26.2/100
    Odds 2.25 Betano Recorded P/L +32.75
    Best odds 2.25 Betano
  2. Pick 2 Valparaiso to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    18%
    Stake Low 7.4/100
    Odds 8.75 Betano Recorded P/L -7.42
    Best odds 8.75 Betano
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Toledo to win with -14.5 handicap 59.0% 2.25 44.4% +14.6 pp
Valparaiso to win 18.0% 8.75 11.4% +6.6 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Toledo

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
16 Mar 2022 Dayton Home 55-74 L
10 Mar 2022 Central Michigan Home 72-71 W
4 Mar 2022 Bowling Green Home 96-56 W
2 Mar 2022 Buffalo Bulls Away 92-76 W
23 Feb 2022 Western Michigan Away 92-50 W

Valparaiso

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
5 Mar 2022 Missouri State Away 58-67 L
4 Mar 2022 Evansville Home 81-59 W
27 Feb 2022 Bradley Away 55-79 L
24 Feb 2022 Drake Home 65-71 L
22 Feb 2022 Evansville Home 74-69 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Points scored Points conceded
Toledo 10 79.4 69.2
Valparaiso 10 69.4 70.6

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Toledo and Valparaiso in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
10 Nov 2021 NCAA Valparaiso vs Toledo 61-69