UT Arlington Mavericks 66-79 Murray State

Finished

For this NCAA match, BetFTW's top pick is Murray State to win with -5.5 handicap, with a 61% estimated probability. We also predict Murray State to win at 71%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Murray State to win with -5.5 handicap W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    61%
    Stake Med 26.5/100
    Odds 2.13 Pinnacle Recorded P/L +29.93
    Best odds 2.13 Pinnacle
  2. Pick 2 Murray State to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    71%
    Stake Low 16.3/100
    Odds 1.53 Bwin Recorded P/L +26.38
    Best odds 1.78 Stake.com
  3. Pick 3 Total score under 153.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    52%
    Stake Low 6.3/100
    Odds 2.05 Betway Recorded P/L +6.60
    Best odds 2.05 Betway
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Murray State to win with -5.5 handicap 61.0% 2.13 46.9% +14.1 pp
Murray State to win 71.0% 1.78 56.2% +14.8 pp
Total score under 153.5 52.0% 2.05 48.8% +3.2 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

UT Arlington Mavericks

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
14 Nov 2024 USC Away 95-98 L
17 Mar 2024 Grand Canyon Away 74-89 L
15 Mar 2024 Stephen F Austin Home 109-78 W
8 Mar 2024 California Baptist Home 71-57 W
1 Mar 2024 Seattle Redhawks Away 82-62 W

Murray State

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
23 Nov 2024 Utah Valley Home 75-77 L
21 Nov 2024 MD Eastern Shore Home 79-61 W
16 Nov 2024 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Away 88-67 W
9 Nov 2024 Pittsburgh Away 68-83 L
7 Mar 2024 Missouri State Home 35-60 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Points scored Points conceded
UT Arlington Mavericks 10 79.8 74.1
Murray State 10 69.7 73.3