Michigan State 79-73 Duke

Finished

BetFTW predicts Duke to win against Michigan State, with a 82% estimated probability.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Duke to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    82%
    Stake Low 22.0/100
    Odds 1.30 Stake.com Recorded P/L -34.63
    Best odds 1.38 FanDuel
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Duke to win 82.0% 1.38 72.5% +9.5 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Michigan State

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
3 Nov 2026 Quinnipiac Home 96-59 W
28 Mar 2026 Connecticut Huskies Away 63-67 L
19 Mar 2026 North Dakota St Home 92-67 W
14 Mar 2026 UCLA Bruins Home 84-88 L
6 Mar 2026 Rutgers Home 91-87 W

Duke

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
6 Nov 2026 Coastal Carolina Home 113-52 W
27 Mar 2026 St John's Red Storm Home 80-75 W
19 Mar 2026 Siena Saints Home 71-65 W
14 Mar 2026 Clemson Tigers Home 73-61 W
3 Mar 2026 NC State Away 93-64 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Points scored Points conceded
Michigan State 10 80.0 70.1
Duke 10 84.3 60.5

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Michigan State and Duke in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
6 Dec 2025 NCAA Michigan State vs Duke 60-66
15 Nov 2023 NCAA Duke vs Michigan State 74-65
20 Mar 2022 NCAA Duke vs Michigan State 85-76
2 Dec 2020 NCAA Duke vs Michigan State 69-75