Newport County 0-1 Northampton

Finished

For this League Two match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 goals, with a 45% estimated probability. We also predict Northampton to win at 36%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    45%
    Stake Low 9.7/100
    Odds 2.56 1xBet Recorded P/L -9.74
    Best odds 2.56 1xBet
  2. Pick 2 Northampton to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    36%
    Stake Low 9.3/100
    Odds 3.40 Ladbrokes Recorded P/L +22.39
    Best odds 3.40 Ladbrokes
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 45.0% 2.56 39.1% +5.9 pp
Northampton to win 36.0% 3.40 29.4% +6.6 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Newport County

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
10 Sep 2021 Harrogate Town Away 2-2 D
4 Sep 2021 Leyton Orient Home 2-2 D
28 Aug 2021 Salford City Away 0-3 L
25 Aug 2021 Southampton Home 0-8 L
21 Aug 2021 Tranmere Rovers Away 1-0 W

Northampton

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
11 Sep 2021 Forest Green Rovers Away 0-1 L
4 Sep 2021 Scunthorpe Home 2-0 W
31 Aug 2021 Forest Green Rovers Away 1-1 D
28 Aug 2021 Crawley Town Away 0-0 D
24 Aug 2021 AFC Wimbledon Home 0-1 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Newport County 10 0.80 2.00
Northampton 10 1.00 0.80