Arsenal 2-1 Leeds

Finished

For this Premier League match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 goals, with a 66% estimated probability. We also predict Arsenal to win at 75%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    66%
    Stake Med 25.5/100
    Odds 1.84 LeoVegas Sport Recorded P/L +24.81
    Best odds 1.89 1xBet
  2. Pick 2 Arsenal to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    75%
    Stake Low 22.9/100
    Odds 1.48 bet-at-home Recorded P/L +11.75
    Best odds 1.49 1xBet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 66.0% 1.89 52.9% +13.1 pp
Arsenal to win 75.0% 1.49 67.1% +7.9 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Arsenal

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
19 Sep 2026 Brighton Away 0-3 L
15 Sep 2026 Ipswich Away 4-2 W
12 Sep 2026 Sunderland Away 2-0 W
9 Sep 2026 Napoli Away 1-0 W
6 Sep 2026 Chelsea Home 2-1 W

Leeds

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
20 Sep 2026 Crystal Palace Home 0-0 D
14 Sep 2026 Newcastle Home 4-1 W
5 Sep 2026 Brighton Away 1-1 D
30 Aug 2026 Brentford Home 1-1 D
25 Aug 2026 Nottingham Forest Away 2-0 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Arsenal 10 1.90 0.80
Leeds 10 1.50 0.90

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Arsenal and Leeds in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
31 Jan 2026 Premier League Leeds vs Arsenal 0-4
23 Aug 2025 Premier League Arsenal vs Leeds 5-0
1 Apr 2023 Premier League Arsenal vs Leeds 4-1
16 Oct 2022 Premier League Leeds vs Arsenal 0-1
18 Dec 2021 Premier League Leeds vs Arsenal 1-4