Watford 0-4 Burnley

Finished

For this Championship match, BetFTW's top pick is Burnley to win, with a 59% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 goals at 59%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Burnley to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    59%
    Stake Med 34.2/100
    Odds 2.65 Bet9ja Recorded P/L +56.35
    Best odds 2.65 Bet9ja
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    59%
    Stake Low 9.0/100
    Odds 1.82 Betano Recorded P/L +7.38
    Best odds 1.82 Betano
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Burnley to win 59.0% 2.65 37.7% +21.3 pp
Total score over 2.5 59.0% 1.82 54.9% +4.1 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Watford

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
18 Sep 2026 Bristol City Away 0-1 L
12 Sep 2026 Stoke City Home 1-2 L
8 Sep 2026 Preston North End Home 2-1 W
5 Sep 2026 West Bromwich Albion Away 0-1 L
1 Sep 2026 Swansea City Away 0-2 L

Burnley

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
19 Sep 2026 Derby County Home 1-1 D
12 Sep 2026 Swansea City Away 1-3 L
8 Sep 2026 Wrexham Away 1-1 D
5 Sep 2026 Bristol City Home 1-2 L
2 Sep 2026 Middlesbrough Home 1-1 D

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Watford 10 0.90 1.50
Burnley 10 1.00 1.80

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Watford and Burnley in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
18 Apr 2025 Championship Watford vs Burnley 1-2
14 Feb 2023 Championship Burnley vs Watford 1-1
12 Aug 2022 Championship Watford vs Burnley 1-0
5 Feb 2022 Premier League Burnley vs Watford 0-0