Flavio Cobolli 0-2 Matteo Arnaldi

Finished

For this ATP Umag match, BetFTW's top pick is Matteo Arnaldi to win, with a 68% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 sets at 44%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Matteo Arnaldi to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    68%
    Stake Low 14.7/100
    Odds 1.60 Sports Interaction Recorded P/L +8.80
    Best odds 1.60 Sports Interaction
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    44%
    Stake Low 5.4/100
    Odds 2.45 1xBet Recorded P/L -5.38
    Best odds 2.45 1xBet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Matteo Arnaldi to win 68.0% 1.60 62.5% +5.5 pp
Total score over 2.5 44.0% 2.45 40.8% +3.2 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Flavio Cobolli

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
24 Jul 2023 Marin Cilic Away 2-0 W
23 Jul 2023 Zdenek Kolar Away 2-0 W
22 Jul 2023 Luca Nardi Home 2-0 W
29 May 2023 Carlos Alcaraz Away 0-3 L
26 May 2023 Laurent Lokoli Away 2-0 W

Matteo Arnaldi

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
25 Jul 2023 Jesper De Jong Away 2-0 W
19 Jul 2023 Lorenzo Musetti Away 1-2 L
18 Jul 2023 Emil Ruusuvuori Home 2-1 W
28 Jun 2023 Federico Gaio Home 2-0 W
31 May 2023 Denis Shapovalov Home 1-3 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Flavio Cobolli 10 1.70 0.70
Matteo Arnaldi 10 1.60 1.20