Matteo Arnaldi 0-2 Daniil Medvedev

Finished

For this ATP Toronto match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 34% estimated probability. We also predict Matteo Arnaldi to win at 22%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    34%
    Stake Low 14.0/100
    Odds 4.30 Lilibet Recorded P/L -14.00
    Best odds 4.30 Lilibet
  2. Pick 2 Matteo Arnaldi to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    22%
    Stake Low 12.0/100
    Odds 8.83 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -12.04
    Best odds 8.83 Pinnacle
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 34.0% 4.30 23.3% +10.7 pp
Matteo Arnaldi to win 22.0% 8.83 11.3% +10.7 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Matteo Arnaldi

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
8 Aug 2023 Vasek Pospisil Away 2-0 W
28 Jul 2023 Jiri Lehecka Away 2-1 W
26 Jul 2023 Flavio Cobolli Away 2-0 W
25 Jul 2023 Jesper De Jong Away 2-0 W
19 Jul 2023 Lorenzo Musetti Away 1-2 L

Daniil Medvedev

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
14 Jul 2023 Carlos Alcaraz Away 0-3 L
12 Jul 2023 Christopher Eubanks Home 3-2 W
8 Jul 2023 Marton Fucsovics Home 3-1 W
23 Jun 2023 Roberto Bautista Agut Home 0-2 L
21 Jun 2023 Laslo Djere Home 2-1 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Matteo Arnaldi 10 1.70 1.00
Daniil Medvedev 10 1.70 1.10

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Matteo Arnaldi and Daniil Medvedev in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
28 Feb 2023 ATP Dubai Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi 2-0