Ludmilla Samsonova 2-1 Aryna Sabalenka

Finished

For this WTA Montreal match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 44% estimated probability. We also predict Aryna Sabalenka to win at 68%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    44%
    Stake Low 9.0/100
    Odds 2.60 Lilibet Recorded P/L +14.40
    Best odds 2.60 Lilibet
  2. Pick 2 Aryna Sabalenka to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    68%
    Stake Low 8.1/100
    Odds 1.53 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -8.07
    Best odds 1.53 Pinnacle
  3. Pick 3 Ludmilla Samsonova to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    32%
    Stake Low 5.3/100
    Odds 3.55 NEO.bet Recorded P/L +13.59
    Best odds 3.55 NEO.bet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 44.0% 2.60 38.5% +5.5 pp
Aryna Sabalenka to win 68.0% 1.53 65.4% +2.6 pp
Ludmilla Samsonova to win 32.0% 3.55 28.2% +3.8 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Ludmilla Samsonova

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
8 Aug 2023 Katerina Siniakova Home 2-1 W
5 Aug 2023 Cori Gauff Away 0-2 L
4 Aug 2023 Marta Kostyuk Home 2-0 W
2 Aug 2023 Sorana Cirstea Home 2-0 W
31 Jul 2023 Danielle Rose Collins Home 2-0 W

Aryna Sabalenka

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
10 Aug 2023 Petra Martic Away 2-0 W
12 Jul 2023 Madison Keys Away 2-0 W
10 Jul 2023 Ekaterina Alexandrova Away 2-0 W
8 Jul 2023 Anna Blinkova Away 2-0 W
7 Jul 2023 Varvara Gracheva Away 2-1 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Ludmilla Samsonova 10 1.40 0.80
Aryna Sabalenka 10 1.70 0.50

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Ludmilla Samsonova and Aryna Sabalenka in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
4 Jan 2023 WTA Adelaide 1 Ludmilla Samsonova vs Aryna Sabalenka 0-2
19 Oct 2022 WTA Guadalajara 2 Ludmilla Samsonova vs Aryna Sabalenka 2-1