Carlos Alcaraz 2-1 Tommy Paul

Finished

For this ATP Cincinnati match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 48% estimated probability. We also predict Tommy Paul to win at 38%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    48%
    Stake Low 19.9/100
    Odds 2.85 Lilibet Recorded P/L +36.80
    Best odds 2.85 Lilibet
  2. Pick 2 Tommy Paul to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    38%
    Stake Low 18.6/100
    Odds 4.20 Suprabets Recorded P/L -18.63
    Best odds 4.20 Suprabets
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 48.0% 2.85 35.1% +12.9 pp
Tommy Paul to win 38.0% 4.20 23.8% +14.2 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Carlos Alcaraz

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
22 Jul 2023 Borna Coric Away 2-1 W
21 Jul 2023 David Goffin Away 2-1 W
16 Jul 2023 Novak Djokovic Home 3-2 W
14 Jul 2023 Daniil Medvedev Home 3-0 W
12 Jul 2023 Holger Vitus Rune Home 3-0 W

Tommy Paul

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
16 Aug 2023 Ugo Humbert Away 2-0 W
11 Aug 2023 Marcos Giron Home 2-0 W
21 Jul 2023 John Isner Home 1-2 L
8 Jul 2023 Jiri Lehecka Away 2-3 L
6 Jul 2023 Milos Raonic Away 3-1 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Carlos Alcaraz 10 2.70 0.60
Tommy Paul 10 2.00 0.90

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
28 Mar 2023 ATP Miami Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul 2-0
10 Aug 2022 ATP Montreal Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 2-1