Carlos Alcaraz 2-1 Max Purcell

Finished

For this ATP Cincinnati match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 38% estimated probability. We also predict Max Purcell to win at 26%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    38%
    Stake Low 18.0/100
    Odds 4.10 Lilibet Recorded P/L +55.80
    Best odds 4.10 Lilibet
  2. Pick 2 Max Purcell to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    26%
    Stake Low 17.5/100
    Odds 9.70 Vbet Sport Recorded P/L -17.49
    Best odds 9.70 Vbet Sport
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 38.0% 4.10 24.4% +13.6 pp
Max Purcell to win 26.0% 9.70 10.3% +15.7 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Carlos Alcaraz

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
17 Aug 2023 Tommy Paul Home 2-1 W
22 Jul 2023 Borna Coric Away 2-1 W
21 Jul 2023 David Goffin Away 2-1 W
16 Jul 2023 Novak Djokovic Home 3-2 W
14 Jul 2023 Daniil Medvedev Home 3-0 W

Max Purcell

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
17 Aug 2023 Stanislas Wawrinka Away 2-0 W
16 Aug 2023 Casper Ruud Home 2-1 W
12 Aug 2023 Luca Van Assche Home 2-1 W
9 Aug 2023 Andy Murray Home 1-2 L
1 Aug 2023 Zachary Svajda Away 1-2 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Carlos Alcaraz 10 2.70 0.70
Max Purcell 10 0.90 1.80