Jannik Sinner 0-2 Carlos Alcaraz

Finished

For this ATP Rome match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 sets, with a 50% estimated probability. We also predict Carlos Alcaraz to win at 46%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    50%
    Stake Low 11.2/100
    Odds 2.29 Pinnacle Recorded P/L -12.96
    Best odds 2.35 LeoVegas Sport
  2. Pick 2 Carlos Alcaraz to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    46%
    Stake Low 6.3/100
    Odds 2.36 Pinnacle Recorded P/L +9.48
    Best odds 2.38 Pinnacle
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 50.0% 2.35 42.6% +7.4 pp
Carlos Alcaraz to win 46.0% 2.38 42.0% +4.0 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Jannik Sinner

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
16 May 2025 Tommy Paul Home 2-1 W
15 May 2025 Casper Ruud Home 2-0 W
13 May 2025 Francisco Cerundolo Home 2-0 W
12 May 2025 Jesper De Jong Home 2-0 W
20 Jan 2025 Holger Rune Home 3-1 W

Carlos Alcaraz

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
16 May 2025 Lorenzo Musetti Home 2-0 W
13 May 2025 Karen Khachanov Away 2-1 W
11 May 2025 Laslo Djere Away 2-0 W
9 May 2025 Dusan Lajovic Away 2-0 W
20 Apr 2025 Holger Rune Home 0-2 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Jannik Sinner 10 2.40 0.30
Carlos Alcaraz 10 1.80 0.40

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
2 Oct 2024 ATP Beijing Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz 1-2
7 Jun 2024 ATP French Open Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner 3-2
16 Mar 2024 ATP Indian Wells Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz 1-2
3 Oct 2023 ATP Beijing Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner 0-2
18 Mar 2023 ATP Indian Wells Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner 2-0