Atletico Paranaense 4-2 Gremio RS

Finished

For this Serie A match, BetFTW's top pick is over 2.5 goals, with a 44% estimated probability. We also predict Atletico Paranaense to win at 36%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    44%
    Stake Low 12.0/100
    Odds 2.75 Bet9ja Recorded P/L +23.20
    Best odds 2.80 1xBet
  2. Pick 2 Atletico Paranaense to win W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    36%
    Stake Low 6.2/100
    Odds 3.15 Париматч Recorded P/L +20.61
    Best odds 3.35 TonyBet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Total score over 2.5 44.0% 2.80 35.7% +8.3 pp
Atletico Paranaense to win 36.0% 3.35 29.9% +6.1 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Atletico Paranaense

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
24 Sep 2021 CA Penarol Away 2-1 W
18 Sep 2021 EC Juventude Home 2-1 W
15 Sep 2021 Santos Away 1-0 W
11 Sep 2021 America Mineiro Away 0-2 L
5 Sep 2021 Sport Recife Home 0-0 D

Gremio RS

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
20 Sep 2021 Flamengo RJ Away 1-0 W
16 Sep 2021 Flamengo RJ Away 0-2 L
12 Sep 2021 Ceara Home 2-0 W
29 Aug 2021 Corinthians Home 0-1 L
26 Aug 2021 Flamengo RJ Home 0-4 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Atletico Paranaense 10 0.80 1.00
Gremio RS 10 1.00 1.00

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio RS in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
13 Jun 2021 Serie A Gremio RS vs Atletico Paranaense 0-1
21 Feb 2021 Serie A Gremio RS vs Atletico Paranaense 1-0
25 Oct 2020 Serie A Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio RS 1-2