Roma 3-4 Real Madrid

Finished

For this Champions League match, BetFTW's top pick is the draw, with a 28% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 goals at 71%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Draw L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    28%
    Stake Low 5.5/100
    Odds 4.20 20Bet Recorded P/L -5.50
    Best odds 4.20 20Bet
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    71%
    Stake Low 5.1/100
    Odds 1.44 20Bet Recorded P/L +2.24
    Best odds 1.44 20Bet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Draw 28.0% 4.20 23.8% +4.2 pp
Total score over 2.5 71.0% 1.44 69.4% +1.6 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Roma

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
11 Oct 2026 Como Away 0-0 D
19 Sep 2026 Inter Milan Home 2-2 D
14 Sep 2026 Torino Away 2-0 W
10 Sep 2026 Fenerbahce Away 1-1 D
5 Sep 2026 Atalanta Home 2-1 W

Real Madrid

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
10 Oct 2026 Villarreal Home 1-0 W
20 Sep 2026 Atletico Madrid Away 1-2 L
15 Sep 2026 Elche Away 3-2 W
12 Sep 2026 Rayo Vallecano Home 4-1 W
8 Sep 2026 Inter Milan Home 2-1 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Roma 10 2.20 0.90
Real Madrid 10 2.40 0.90