Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa

Finished

For this Premier League match, BetFTW's top pick is Newcastle to win, with a 72% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 goals at 66%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Newcastle to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    72%
    Stake Med 49.6/100
    Odds 2.25 Novibet Recorded P/L -51.26
    Best odds 2.35 Betsson
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    66%
    Stake Low 11.2/100
    Odds 1.62 Betano Recorded P/L -15.25
    Best odds 1.67 1xBet
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Newcastle to win 72.0% 2.35 42.6% +29.4 pp
Total score over 2.5 66.0% 1.67 59.9% +6.1 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Newcastle

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
12 Oct 2026 Coventry City Away 1-4 L
19 Sep 2026 Hull City Home 2-1 W
14 Sep 2026 Leeds Away 1-4 L
8 Sep 2026 Millwall Away 1-0 W
5 Sep 2026 Bournemouth Home 2-2 D

Aston Villa

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
14 Oct 2026 Fenerbahce Home 6-0 W
10 Oct 2026 Brentford Home 2-2 D
2 Oct 2026 Sevilla Away 3-1 W
19 Sep 2026 Tottenham Away 3-2 W
16 Sep 2026 Coventry City Away 3-1 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Newcastle 10 1.60 1.90
Aston Villa 10 2.10 1.50

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Newcastle and Aston Villa in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
14 Feb 2026 FA Cup Aston Villa vs Newcastle 1-3
25 Jan 2026 Premier League Newcastle vs Aston Villa 0-2
16 Aug 2025 Premier League Aston Villa vs Newcastle 0-0
19 Apr 2025 Premier League Aston Villa vs Newcastle 4-1
26 Dec 2024 Premier League Newcastle vs Aston Villa 3-0