Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad

Finished

For this La Liga match, BetFTW's top pick is Real Sociedad to win, with a 37% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 goals at 58%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Real Sociedad to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    37%
    Stake Low 12.3/100
    Odds 3.56 1xBet Recorded P/L -12.34
    Best odds 3.56 1xBet
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 W Settled - pick won.
    Estimated probability
    58%
    Stake Low 8.0/100
    Odds 1.84 Casumo Sport Recorded P/L +6.72
    Best odds 1.84 Casumo Sport
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Real Sociedad to win 37.0% 3.56 28.1% +8.9 pp
Total score over 2.5 58.0% 1.84 54.3% +3.7 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Athletic Bilbao

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
29 Oct 2026 AE Prat Away 6-1 W
25 Oct 2026 Getafe Home 4-0 W
21 Oct 2026 Levante Away 1-3 L
17 Oct 2026 Valencia Away 0-0 D
19 Sep 2026 Alaves Home 0-0 D

Real Sociedad

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
25 Oct 2026 Levante Home 2-1 W
22 Oct 2026 Lillestrom Away 6-0 W
18 Oct 2026 Malaga Away 5-2 W
15 Oct 2026 Royal Union Saint-Gilloise Away 1-1 D
11 Oct 2026 Deportivo La Coruna Home 3-2 W

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Team Matches Goals scored Goals conceded
Athletic Bilbao 10 1.80 1.00
Real Sociedad 10 2.40 1.50

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
4 Mar 2026 Copa Del Rey Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao 1-0
11 Feb 2026 Copa Del Rey Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad 0-1
1 Feb 2026 La Liga Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad 1-1
1 Nov 2025 La Liga Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao 3-2
4 May 2025 La Liga Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao 0-0