Sebastian Baez 0-2 Tomas Machac

Finished

For this ATP Paris match, BetFTW's top pick is Sebastian Baez to win, with a 30% estimated probability. We also predict over 2.5 sets at 42%.

How we calculate predictions

Bet For The Win

  1. Pick 1 Sebastian Baez to win L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    30%
    Stake Low 13.5/100
    Odds 5.25 Betway Recorded P/L -13.53
    Best odds 5.25 Betway
  2. Pick 2 Total score over 2.5 L Settled - pick not won.
    Estimated probability
    42%
    Stake Low 13.0/100
    Odds 3.00 Betway Recorded P/L -13.00
    Best odds 3.00 Betway
Odds updated

Estimated probability vs. the odds

The implied probability is 1 divided by the best recorded decimal odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. A positive difference is the edge behind the pick.

Pick Estimated probability Best recorded odds Implied probability Difference
Sebastian Baez to win 30.0% 5.25 19.0% +11.0 pp
Total score over 2.5 42.0% 3.00 33.3% +8.7 pp

Recent form

The latest finished matches BetFTW recorded for each side before this event, most recent first.

Sebastian Baez

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
24 Oct 2026 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Home 1-2 L
10 Oct 2026 Valentin Vacherot Home 0-2 L
8 Oct 2026 Marcos Giron Away 2-1 W
1 Oct 2026 Juncheng Shang Away 1-2 L
23 Sep 2026 Jenson Brooksby Home 0-2 L

Tomas Machac

Date Opponent Home/Away Score Result
24 Oct 2026 Corentin Moutet Away 2-0 W
22 Oct 2026 Karen Khachanov Home 1-2 L
9 Oct 2026 Alexander Bublik Away 0-2 L
7 Oct 2026 Zhizhen Zhang Away 2-1 W
29 Sep 2026 Arthur Gea Home 0-2 L

Scoring averages

Per-match averages over each side's latest recorded matches.

Player Matches Sets won Sets lost
Sebastian Baez 10 0.80 1.60
Tomas Machac 10 1.10 1.50

Head-to-head

Previous meetings between Sebastian Baez and Tomas Machac in BetFTW's records.

Date Competition Match Score
14 Apr 2026 ATP Barcelona Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez 2-1
8 Apr 2025 ATP Monte Carlo Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez 2-1