Value betting explained
A value bet is a price that pays more than the chance of the outcome justifies. BetFTW publishes a pick only when its estimated probability is higher than the probability implied by the odds. In the 12 months to 30 October 2026, its 36,106 settled football picks had an average estimated probability of 53.4% against 43.1% implied by their best recorded odds.
Odds are probabilities with a margin
Decimal odds convert to an implied probability with one division: implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Odds of 2.50 imply 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market and the total is above 100%; the excess is the bookmaker's margin, so a bookmaker's price pays slightly less than a fair price would.
When a price is value
A bet has a positive expected return when probability × decimal odds is greater than 1. If you think an outcome has a 45% chance and the odds are 2.50, the expected return is 0.45 × 2.50 − 1 = +12.5% of the stake. The same outcome at odds of 2.10 gives 0.45 × 2.10 − 1 = −5.5%. Value depends on the price as much as on the prediction: a likely winner at a short price can be a poor bet, and an outsider at a long price can be a good one.
A worked example from BetFTW's record
The most recent settled football pick in a priority competition: Flamengo RJ to win in Vasco Da Gama RJ vs Flamengo RJ (Brazil Serie A, 29 October 2026).
| Estimated probability | 51.0% |
|---|---|
| Best recorded odds | 2.35 |
| Implied probability (1 ÷ odds) | 42.6% |
| Expected return per unit staked | +19.9% |
| Result | Won |
A single result says little about a value bet. A pick with a positive expected return still loses often; value only shows over many bets.
Estimated and implied probability by sport
Averages over picks settled in the 12 months to 30 October 2026, with the Kelly-weighted yield those picks returned at their best recorded odds.
| Sport | Settled picks | Average estimated probability | Average implied probability | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 36,106 | 53.4% | 43.1% | +2.9% |
| Basketball | 22,277 | 58.8% | 44.9% | +4.7% |
| Tennis | 3,253 | 51.9% | 39.6% | -2.7% |
| Ice Hockey | 11,707 | 46.3% | 38.4% | +4.4% |
What value betting cannot do
An estimated probability is an estimate. If it is wrong, an apparent edge is not real, and results over a short period are dominated by chance. Prices also move: the odds you can get may be lower than the best price BetFTW recorded. Read how BetFTW selects picks and its full record before relying on any of it.